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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.