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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."