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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest surprise.

Yet the current race is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers ascending in unison. In an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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