🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market User Profited $Nearly Half a Million on Bets on Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader just before it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from inside knowledge of American actions. Sudden Shift in Forecasts Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the month's conclusion rose in the period preceding Donald Trump stated on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been apprehended. A particular user, which joined the platform recently and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $436K from a starting bet of $32,537. It remains unclear. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before News Break Market statistics shows that participants put the odds of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. However these probabilities had increased to over 10% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the early hours of the next day, pointing to a sharp shift in betting activity just before the social media post was made. "This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a trade based on confidential knowledge," commented a financial reform advocate. Several of other individuals also earned large payouts from bets on the same outcome. Legal Questions Grows Elected officials are beginning to pay attention. A new rule presented on the start of the week aims to prohibit federal workers from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. The Prediction Market Landscape Forecasting platforms have grown significantly in the past few years, with users able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to politics. This sector faced scrutiny under the previous administration. But it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting space. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."